Q1 of 2026 told a story that's worth paying attention to, especially if you've been sitting on the sidelines waiting to see which way the St. Pete market was going to break. Here's what I saw, what the data shows, and what I think it means for the rest of the year.
Inventory climbed. Meaningfully.
Active listings in Pinellas County came into Q1 elevated compared to where we were a year ago, and that trend held through March. More inventory means more choices for buyers and more competition among sellers. That's a structural shift from the 2021–2023 period when low inventory was propping up prices even as demand softened.
The neighborhoods where inventory built up most visibly: parts of Shore Acres, some of the southwest St. Pete canal corridors, and the condo market broadly. The historic districts, Old Northeast, Historic Kenwood, and Crescent Heights, stayed tighter because supply there is structurally constrained.
Days on market stretched.
The average days on market in Pinellas climbed through Q1, ending the quarter well above where it sat a year ago. Some of that is seasonal. January through February are always slower. But the trend held into March in a way that suggested it wasn't just seasonal softness.
What that means practically: buyers who lost out on multiple offers in previous years now have time to think, schedule inspections on their own terms, and negotiate. That's a real change.
Prices held, but the spread widened.
Median prices didn't collapse. That's the first thing buyers and sellers both want to know, and the answer is no. The floor held. But the difference between a well-priced home that sold in two weeks and an overpriced home that sat for 90 days got wider in Q1.
Sellers who priced right, based on real comps and not 2022 comparisons, still moved their homes. Sellers who reached for top-of-market pricing without the property to justify it watched their listings age. The market got pickier without getting cheaper.
The condo market is its own conversation.
If you're looking at condos in St. Pete, Q1 reinforced what I've been telling buyers since the new condo laws went into effect: HOA reserves, milestone inspections, and special assessment risk are now front-and-center underwriting issues. Some buildings are in great shape. Others are staring down significant per-unit assessments.
I pull HOA financials and reserve study summaries on every condo we seriously consider. If you're in the condo market, that due diligence step is non-negotiable right now.
What Q2 looks like from here:
The spring market arrived on schedule: more listings, more buyers, more activity. But I don't think we're going back to 2022. What I do think: buyers who are ready and realistic will find real opportunity in Q2 and Q3. And sellers who price right and present well will still get strong outcomes. They just need to meet the market where it is, not where it was.
If you want to talk through what this means for a specific neighborhood or a specific property you're watching, reach out. I'm happy to pull the numbers.
Written by
Alexis Kaplowitz
Realtor · Smith & Associates · St. Petersburg, FL